By Ranting Panda, 4 July 2020
Australian Prime Minister, Scott Morrison has announced a $270 billion defence strategy, which includes a missile acquisition program (Tillett 2020). The missiles will have long-range capability that could strike other countries because, according to Morrison, we need to 'prepare for a post-Covid world that is poorer, more dangerous and more disorderly' (Hurst 2020).
Few of Australia's neighbours pose a military threat, however, it is China that has shown itself to be the most aggressive in the Indo-Pacific region. It has expanded into the South China Sea, and regularly encroaches the waters of other nations, such as the Philippines.
Morrison claims that his missile program will provide a deterrent, however, it could cause China to react more aggressively by building up its armed presence closer to Australia. Morrison and his LNP predecessors have been defunding foreign aid to Pacific nations for some years. Since 2013/14, Australia has reduced its foreign aid budget by 36%. Australia's current level of foreign aid is 0.21% of Gross National Income (GNI), which is almost 3.5 times less than the UN recommendation of 0.7% of GNI. For Pacific nations, this has translated to a reduction in foreign aid of 26% from the Cook Islands, 5% from Fiji, 10% from Kiribati, 42% from the North Pacific, 14% from Samoa, 10% from Tonga, and 17% from Tuvalu (Lyons 2020). While Australia remains the largest provider of foreign aid, China is increasing the programs it provides to these nations as it seeks greater influence in the region. In 2018, China pledged $4 billion in aid to Pacific nations; which if delivered will be around four times what Australia contributes (Lyons 2018). It does not behove Australia for these nations to become increasingly indebted to China.
China has made no secret of courting these nations to establish influence in the Pacific. If Australia is so concerned about China's military ructions, it would do better to increase foreign aid so as those nations are not having to secure assistance from China.
The other nation which Australia has a love/hate relationship with, is Indonesia. In 1999, violence erupted through East Timor, then an Indonesian territory, after a successful vote for independence. Indonesia did not take the results of the vote very well and waves of violence erupted through the territory from pro-Indonesian militia and the Indonesian military. Australia backed East Timor's push for independence and sent troops to protect civilians against the violence. This greatly angered Indonesia. It is highly likely that Indonesia will not take lightly to Australia's new long-range missiles.
It is entirely possible that Australia's military build-up is going to cause a greater threat to Australia's security, than anything else.
For years, the LNP have banged on about 'debt and deficit' whenever they talk about the Labor Party's economic credentials. In response to COVID-19, the Morrison government unleashed a $214 billion stimulus (Karp 2020), which dramatically increased Australia's debt and deficit, while plummeting the country into recession (Jericho 2020). Rather than attempt to reduce this debt, Morrison has decided to splurge on unnecessary military hardware, which is more likely to cause harm to Australia, than to protect it. Imagine the reaction from the military might of China, if the military gnat from down under, launches a missile at it. Just how many missiles does Morrison expect to get for his money? How long will Australia last if it launches an attack on China?
Then there is the opportunity cost of this money. Since Covid-19, Australia's unemployment rate has skyrocketed to 7.1%, with more than 1.6 million people out of work. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that in May 2020, there were 129,100 job vacancies, meaning that there is now one job vacancy for every 12 people out of work (ABS 2020). Because of this, more than 600,000 people have stopped actively looking work, meaning they are no longer counted in the unemployment figures. The Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates that if those people were counted, Australia's unemployment rate would be 11.3%, the highest since the 1990s recession, while the youth unemployment rate would be 26.5%. (Hutchens 2020).
Rather than spend $270 billion on defence, which is not going to end well, Morrison would be much better off investing in the Australian economy to create jobs, with the corresponding increase in economic stability. With so many people out of work, the long-term impact on Australia's social fabric is going to be significant. Such a high level of unemployment is going to increase bankruptcies, poverty, crime, and a deterioration in education and health outcomes.
If Morrison predicts that poverty is going to cause a more dangerous and disorderly world, then is he proposing to bomb Australia's unemployed with his shiny new missiles?
Morrison had to stimulate the economy during COVID-19, however, the recovery stage of any disaster is always much longer than the disaster itself. Now is not the time for Morrison to cancel JobKeeper or other stimulus programs. It is the time to support those who are out of work, while also investing in job creation programs. It is not the time for missiles.
The priorities of Morrison and his predecessors have been decidedly archaic and short-sighted. Instead of investing in the future, they have conducted anti-intellectualist campaigns of disinformation, coupled with defunding or failure to adequately fund universities, public media, CSIRO, research programs, renewable energy, climate change, disability services, public health, and arts. According to Morrison, these are unnecessary, while fossil fuels and missiles are essential for securing Australia's future. To Morrison and his anti-intellectual peers, science is just a matter of opinion.
Missiles are not the answer to Australia's economic ills. If a poorer world will be a more dangerous world, it makes more sense to address poverty rather than the military.
Welfare is better than warfare. Job creation is better than military conflict.
Australia and many other nations are still wealthy even given COVID. It is time to share the wealth where it is needed, rather than accumulate it and risk poverty and disorder.
Missiles won't make us safer, meanwhile Morrison continues defunding economic aid, job creation & social security programs.
Morrison's smug short-sightedness is the biggest threat to Australia's future security, while doing nothing to alleviate poverty or to help the most vulnerable.
References
Australian Bureau of Statistics 2020, 6354.0 - Job Vacancies, Australia, May 2020, viewed 3 July 2020, https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6354.0.
Hurst, D 2020, 'Australia to acquire long-range missiles as PM warns of dangerous post-Covid-19 world', The Guardian, 30 June, viewed 3 July 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/30/australia-to-acquire-long-range-missiles-as-pm-warns-of-dangerous-post-covid-19-world.
Hutchens, G 2020, 'JobSeeker has about 700,000 more claimants than there are 'unemployed' people on ABS data', ABC News, 19 June, viewed 3 July 2020, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-19/unemployment-numbers-still-mask-the-true-scale-of-job-losses/12370940.
Jericho, G 2020, 'Yes, Australia is in a recession – but worse is yet to come', The Guardian, 3 June, viewed 3 July 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2020/jun/03/yes-australia-is-in-a-recession-but-worse-is-yet-to-come.
Karp, P 2020, 'Australian economic stimulus package: how much governments have committed to coronavirus crisis', The Guardian, 31 March, viewed 3 July 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/31/australian-economic-stimulus-package-how-much-governments-have-committed-to-coronavirus-crisis.
Lyons, K 2018, 'Huge increase in Chinese aid pledged to Pacific', The Guardian, 9 August, viewed 3 July 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/08/huge-increase-in-chinese-aid-pledged-to-pacific.
Lyons, K 2020, 'Australia slashes Pacific aid funding for health as region battles medical crises', The Guardian, 18 February, viewed 3 July 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/18/australia-slashes-pacific-aid-funding-for-health-as-region-battles-medical-crises.
Tillett, A 2020, 'New missiles for defence in $270b arms build-up', Australian Financial Review, 30 June, viewed 3 July 2020, https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/new-missiles-for-defence-in-270b-arms-build-up-20200630-p557kg.
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