The rise and fall of crime

The rise and fall of crime 

Crumbling crime rates in the face of media sensationalism

By Ranting Panda, 14 July 2024

Every day we are saturated with media reports of violent crime, youth crime waves, car-jackings, home invasions, murders, and on the list goes as journos breathlessly sensationalise the gory details in an effort to instill fear in the viewer. 

Much of this reporting is politically motivated. Certain right-wing media outlets are constantly reporting on any crime they can sensationalise while charging Labor politicians with neglect and responsibility. Of course, they don't hold Liberal party governments to the same level of accountability.

In 2013, when Campbell Newman romped to power in Queensland, he took the 'pooper scooper' (in his words) to the public service. One of the first groups to go were child safety workers. He also decimated police inspectors and shut youth mental support facilities. Each of these actions directly removed the very support that young people needed that would help them avoid a life of crime. Did the media hold him to account? Of course not. Instead, they blamed the incoming Labor government for the youth crime 'crisis', as did the LNP from the opposition benches. 

Be that as it may, is it true that there is a crime crisis? Is it true that crime is worse now than ever before? 

These are important questions because if the answer to this is 'no', then we risk politicians implementing laws that are merely knee-jerk reactions to media sensationalism, which may exacerbate crime rather than reduce it. If the answer to these questions is 'no', then we need to consider what has been happening to reduce crime over the years and ensure that those factors are either encouraged or at least not hampered. 

Similarly, it's important to understand the demographic of the people responsible for crime. If we blame the wrong demographic for the rise in crime, then the real perpetrators may not be adequately addressed. For example, is there really a youth crime wave, or are there other demographics responsible for a larger volume of violent crimes?

The answer to these questions depends on the time period that crime is measured over. Crime, like other things in the world, tends to fluctuate. Given that there are also different types of crimes, there may be a spike in one type while others fall. 

Let's look first at whether there is a youth crime 'crisis'. Youth crime is actually at an all-time low. This is based on the number of unique offenders. What we're seeing is that there are fewer young people committing crimes than at any other time in the last 20 years. 

Sato (2024)

The demographic responsible for much of the crime is aged between 30 and 39. Out of 19,977 assaults in Queensland, the 30-39 age group committed 4,761 of the crimes, while those aged between 10 and 17 committed 4,041.

Sato (2024)

Although there are fewer younger people are responsible for the assaults, that demographic has a higher rate of recidivism than adult criminals. This is also reflected in data across Australia, which shows that the average age of offenders is increasing, while there are fewer young people offending (Weatherburn & Rahmann, 2021, p. 102). The higher recidivism rate gives the appearance that youth crime is out of control, when in fact, there is less likelihood of a young person being involved in crime and an increasing likelihood of someone older being involved in a crime. 

Recidivism rates (Sato, 2024)

Everywhere we look, there are reports of youth crime being out of control. To reiterate the above, youth crime is trending downwards. The following table breaks youth crime down by Australian states. Despite the occasional fluctuation, youth crime has described dramatically over the last 10 years. 

Goldsworthy, Brotto & Cawthray (2023)

It's important to understand these figures because it determines how governments should be responding to crime. If they were to only address juvenile crime at the expense of adult crime, it is clear that crime will continue to rise. If they simply target juveniles, then that would also be a mistake, because juveniles are less likely to be engaged in violent crime. However, there should be programs in place to address the recidivism rates in young people. 

Let's look at other crimes. 

The last person to be executed in Australia was Ronald Ryan at Pentridge Prison, Victoria, in 1967. He was hanged for murdering a prison guard. In the 20 years or so after capital punishment was finally abolished in all states of Australia, murder rates dropped. The following charts were produced by the Australian Institute of Criminology in 1987, showing that numbers of homicides increased since 1965, but as a rate per 100,000 of population, homicides had actually decreased. 

Potas & Walker (1987)

Further to this, murder rates in Australia have continued decreasing since 1986, when there were 2.19 murders per 100,000 of population. By 2021, murders had reduced to 0.74 per 100,000 people (Macrotrends n.d). In 1993, there were 697 murders in Australia. In 2023, there were 409. In the 20 years between 1998 and 2018, the homicide rate declined by 67% (Weatherburn & Rahmann, 2017, p. 245).

Data sources from Australian Bureau of Statistics (2020, 2024)

One of the explanations for the decline in murder rates is improvements in emergency medical treatment. However, attempted murder also declined significantly. Between 2001 and 2017, murder rates in Australia dropped by 50%, while attempted murder dropped by 70% (Weatherburn & Rahmann 2021, p. 24). 

Since 2008 in Australia, assaults have declined by 45%, from 3.1% of persons aged over 15, to 1.7% in 2023. Threatened assault has declined by 43%, from a high of 4.2% to 2.4% in 2023. 

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2023)

During the same period, robberies decreased by 67%, from 0.6% to 0.2%.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2023)

Sexual assaults, however, saw an increase of 67% since 2008. 

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2023)

 

There have been significant declines in almost all other crimes in Australia, which is also reflected across other western nations. In the United States, between 1993 and 2017, violent crime rates fell by 74%, while there was a 69% reduction in property crime rates. During that period, crime rates significantly dropped in other western countries, including Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the United Kingdom. (Weatherburn & Rahmann, 2021, p. 5).

Timings of the crime rate drops differ from country to country. In Canada and the US, it began in the early 1990s. In the UK, it began in the mid-1990s, while significant declines in homicide in Australia began in the late 1980s. Property crime rates began declining in Australia from 2001 and declines in assault began in 2008. (Weatherburn & Rahmann, 2021, p. 5).

There are a variety of factors that have contributed to this. Some theories postulate that the crime drop was a result of the decline in the crack cocaine market. That might explain the United States, but doesn't explain jurisdictions such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada. There have also been improvements in home security and in tracking stolen goods which may have contributed to a reduction in property crimes. Since 2002, pawnbrokers and second-hand dealers in Australia are legally required to be presented with proof of identity and ownership (Weatherburn & Rahmann, 2021, p. 168). A possible contributor to the reduction in property crime is the rapidity with which products are bought to market and the use of perceived obsolescence. In other words, people want the latest 'things', so the time within which to steal and turn around the sale of stolen goods is dramatically shorter than it used to be (Ibid, p. 194). Generally, people don't want to buy, or at least not pay much for the last model of iPhone or other devices.

Theft of motor vehicles has also declined, which may be attributed to engine immobilisers, labelling of parts with micro-dots and stricter regulation of the used car market, such as through the Written-Off Vehicles Register (WOVR), which records if a vehicle has been stolen (Weatherburn & Rahmann, 2021, p. 174). One interesting theory is that the reduction in stolen vehicles has a knock-on effect in reducing other crimes that are reliant on a stolen vehicle to transport criminals or stolen goods. However, criminals are general inventive and would usually find other ways to conduct their crimes (Ibid, p. 176).

Some have even postulated that crime reduction is linked to legalised abortion, so there were fewer unwanted and neglected children going on to become criminals. The evidence on this is inconclusive.

Declines in assaults in Australia appears to be directly related to the lower consumption of alcohol, which is at its lowest since the early 1960s, with noticeable declines commencing in the mid-2000s. This has been primarily driven by significant reductions in alcohol consumption among young Australians (Livingstone & Pennay, 2015), along with the success of lock-out laws in night-club precincts (Weatherburn & Rahmann, 2021, p. 135).

In Australia, some commentators argued that the decline in crime was because of an unwillingness to report it. However, there has been no evidence that there is an unwillingness by victims to report crime (Weatherburn & Rahmann, 2021, p 24). The exception to this is the reporting of sexual assault, which is a crime that traditionally has had low levels of reporting. Unlike other crimes, sexual assaults are increasing, which could be an indicator that people are more willing to report it than in previous years. The 'Me too' movement may have provided encouragement for victims to come forward. 

Other crimes that have increased, are those associated with technology. Crimes such as identity theft and credit card fraud, either through cloning of cards or internet fraud have increased. The increased use of credit cards, however, has resulted in fewer robberies of people based on cash, which was a desirable target as it negated the need to sell goods (Weatherburn & Rahmann, 2017, p. 159, 238).

Politicians and the public often respond to sensationalist media reporting by calling for harsher penalties. However, punishment is not a significant deterrent. Yes, people should face justice for their crimes, but crime will not decrease through stricter punishments. Firstly, many criminals don't expect to get caught, so the threat of punishment means little to them. Jail is like a university for criminals. All that it teaches criminals is how to be better criminals. It provides networking opportunities, while also stigmatising prisoners so that they are often unable to gain meaningful employment afterwards. Without meaningful employment, they will return to a life of crime ... often just so that they can put food on the table. 

In 1997, mandatory sentencing was introduced to the Northern Territory in response to incessant media reporting of epidemic levels of home break-ins. The year after mandatory sentencing, the break-in rates were even higher (Weatherburn & Rahmann, 2021, p. 15). Even with the guarantee of harsh prison sentences, as opposed to bail or discretionary sentencing, crimes actually increased under the mandatory sentencing regime. Clearly, sentencing is not the deterrent that people think it is. 

Despite the media claiming that the courts are soft on crime, imprisonment rates have risen by 42% in Australia from 2001 to 2017. Almost 30% of this was between 2012 and 2017 (Weatherburn & Rahmann, 2017, p. 223). It is likely that this has contributed to some of the decline, however, it's also important to note that crime rates were already declining prior to this increase in sentencing (Ibid, p. 232).  

Even punishment as harsh as capital punishment provides little deterrent. In fact, there is some evidence to indicate that it may create a 'brutalising effect' and encourage acts of extreme violence, rather than act as a deterrent (Potas & Walker, 1987, p. 4). It will certainly prevent recidivism, but murderers have a very low rate of recidivism anyway (Potas & Walker, 1987, p. 4). Studies indicate that globally, jurisdictions that have abolished the death penalty have not experienced any increase in murder rates (Potas & Walker, 1987, p. 3). As we saw above, murder rates in Australia have declined significantly since capital punishment was abolished.

Advocates for firearms argue that the right to carry guns reduces crime. This doesn't apply in Australia since the 1996 gun buyback scheme and subsequent ban on certain types of firearms, although there are those here who believe that we should have the right to carry guns. In a study of data over a 14-year period, it was found that violent crimes in the United States were 13-15% higher in states that allowed citizens the right to carry firearms than in those that didn't. (Weatherburn & Rahmann, 2021, p. 83).

Media sensationalism of crime has been going on for decades. The following is a list of headlines going back to the 1950s in Australia. They reflect the common trope, 'if it bleeds it leads'. Take away the dates and one would think they were headlines of today.

Brown & Hogg (1996, p. 176)

Politicians, such as Donald Trump and his feckless ilk, have blamed increased migration for increased crime. But as we can clearly see, crime is declining ... perhaps Trump et al should be focusing on maintaining or increasing migration if they think it's directly linked to crime rates. In Australia, the vast majority of our migration program is focused on skilled migration, so there is little need for migrants to commit crimes. Migrants, particularly those from non-English speaking countries, tend to have very strong extended family and community ties and therefore support from a wide network which is a crucial factor in minimising the likelihood of committing crime (Weatherburn & Rahmann, 2021, p. 59). Additionally, any migrant who is sentenced to a period or periods of 12 months or more detention will be removed from the country. It's imperative to note that they don't need to serve the sentence in full; they only need to receive the sentence to face visa cancellation and removal from the country. They could receive four sentences of three months each, all wholly suspended, and still be removed because the total cumulative head sentence is 12 months. While some migrants do commit crimes, it isn't as widespread as anti-migrant commentators would have us believe. 

In summary, factors that could explain the fall in crime, include (Weatherburn & Rahmann, 2021, Chapters 2 and 3):

• Structural ageing of the population. As we saw above, the largest groups committing crime are aged up to 39. Australia and other western nations have more higher proportions of their population aged over 40 than they ever had. This could partly explain the drop in crime.
• Reduction in use of addictive drugs, such as heroin. Numerous studies have found a causal link between drug use and crime. This is partly due to the cost of drugs. The type of drug can also contribute to crime, e.g., methamphetamine which stimulates the user towards more aggressive behaviour. Heroin use has declined significantly, which could be a contributor to declining crime rates. Clearly, this isn't the only factor because crime has continued to decline after heroin use stabilised. Crime also declined in areas where heroin use was rare. 
• Reduction in alcohol use appears to have been a significant factor in the reduction of assaults (Ibid, p. 239).
• Improvements in home and vehicle security, as noted above, which has helped to reduce opportunities presented to criminals. There have also been security improvements in commercial buildings and street monitoring with CCTVs. By 2017, bank robberies declined by 97% since their peak in 1997, while street robberies declined by 86% at their peak in 2001. (Ibid p. 153). 
• Improved economic conditions, such as higher salaries and lower unemployment rates. A study in the UK found that property offending was three times higher when young people were unemployed than when they were employed (Weatherburn & Rahmann, 2021, p. 188). Another study found that where wages fell by 10% there was a corresponding '4.3% increase in property crime and 3% increase in violent crimes' (Ibid, p. 189). Economic factors could be something to watch as economic conditions start contracting. In Australia, housing affordability is declining, rents are increasing, and we are seeing an increase in homelessness attributed to these factors. If this continues, there could be an increase in crime based on this lack of affordability and availability of necessities, such as housing. 
• Increased policing. There is evidence to indicate that better deployment of police in targeting crime hot spots can reduce crime. However, simple numbers of police have marginal impact, whereas there is more efficacy through improvements in policing. Police are held more accountable now than ever following the various anti-corruption enquiries. Police have access to number plate recognition, drones, CCTV, biometric devices, DNA databases, and other technology that contribute to rapid identification of perpetrators (ibid, p. 207).
• Increases in imprisonment rates. As mentioned earlier, imprisonment tends to have only a small deterrence impact. The amount of money spent on incarceration could be better spent on policing or other measures and would likely result in a greater deterrence or reduction in crime. 
• Decline in the demand for stolen goods, because of lower prices for products and the rapid introduction of new products on the market, as well as greater regulation of the second-hand goods market.

Another contributing factor to declining crime rates is the change in social attitudes. Some commentators may label the current generation as 'woke' or 'politically correct' because of their desire to accept people for who they are (essentially 'do unto others as you would have them do unto you'). The current push for so-called political correctness should not be disparaged, because it has resulted in greater respect for other people and a lower tolerance for anti-social and violent behaviour (Weatherburn & Rahmann, 2021, p. 149). The attitude of many now is to 'live and let live', to allow people to live their best lives without interference or criticism from others. It has resulted in people going out and enjoying themselves without tolerating harassment by others. There is less tolerance for violence, for anti-social behaviour and for domestic violence than in generations gone by. This coupled with a decline in alcohol consumption among people under 40, appears to be a significant contributor to the reduction in assaults (Ibid, p. 239).

It's clear that in Australia factors such as capital punishment and the right to carry firearms are irrelevant in explaining the decline in crime, so are not necessary responses to addressing crime in this country.

To truly reduce crime, there needs to be a multi-pronged approach. If we simply put on more cops, they are only going to be pursuing fewer criminals, regardless of what the media may claim. Responses to crime should include programs that proactively address the drivers that lead people into crime in the first place, which we can learn from the drivers of the current long-term crime reduction trends. It should also provide support programs for people once they're released from prison, to assist in reducing recidivism. 

The media should be telling the whole story and not sensationalising or fearmongering. Certainly, they should report on crimes being committed, but this should be balanced with contextualised and responsible reporting that explains why rates of most crimes have declined significantly. 

References

Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2020, 27 years of Recorded Crime – Victims data, 16 September, https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/27-years-recorded-crime-victims-data#homicide-and-related-offences, viewed 13 July 2024. 

Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2023, Crime Victimisation Australia - 2022/23, https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/crime-victimisation-australia/2022-23#physical-assault, viewed 14 July 2024. 

Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2024, Recorded Crime - Victims, 27 June, https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/recorded-crime-victims/latest-release, viewed 13 July 2024. 

Brown, D, & Hogg, R, 1996, Contemporary comment - Law and Order commonsense, Current Issues in Criminal Justice, Volume 8 Number 2, https://www8.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/CICrimJust/1996/31.pdf, viewed 14 July 2024. 

Crime Statistics Agency, 2024, Alleged Offender Incidents, https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/crime-statistics/latest-victorian-crime-data/alleged-offender-incidents-2, viewed 13 July 2024. 

Goldsworthy, T, Brotto, G, & Cawthray, T, 2023, Is Australia in the grips of a youth crime crisis? This is what the data says, The Conversation, 30 October, https://theconversation.com/is-australia-in-the-grips-of-a-youth-crime-crisis-this-is-what-the-data-says-213655, viewed 13 July 2024.

Livingston, M, & Pennay, A, 2015, Don’t believe the hype, teens are drinking less than they used to, University of New South Wales, National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, 21 May, https://ndarc.med.unsw.edu.au/blog/dont-believe-hype-teens-are-drinking-less-they-used, viewed 13 July 2024. 

Macrotrends, n.d., Australia Murder/Homicide Rate 1960-2024, https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/AUS/australia/murder-homicide-rate, viewed 13 July 2024.

Potas, I, & Walker, J, 1987, Capital Punishment, Australian Institute of Criminology, Trends and Issues in Crime and Criminal Justice, No 3, https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-05/tandi003.pdf, viewed 13 July 2024. 

Queensland Treasury, 2023, Crime Report, Queensland 2021-22, Recorded crime statistics, https://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/issues/7856/crime-report-qld-2021-22.pdf, viewed 13 July 2024.

Sato, K, 2024, Violent crime nearly three times worse since 2020, Queensland statisticians find, and it's not youth, ABC News, 22 April, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-22/queensland-violence-on-rise-report-shows-not-just-youth-crime/103751192, viewed 13 July 2024. 

Weatherburn, D, & Rahmann, S, 2021, The Vanishing Criminal - Causes of Decline in Australia's Crime Rate, Melbourne University Press, https://www.mup.com.au/books/the-vanishing-criminal-paperback-softback.

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